Are you pinning your hopes for success on a system that’s no better than a coin toss?

What if the system you're trying to win was never designed for you to win in the first place?

Are you chasing someone else’s success, or creating your own?

The Cultural Lottery and Advice Economy

We live in a world obsessed with winning cultural lotteries. Viral videos. Ivy League acceptance. Many of us are playing a game we think we can win by following the rules. We’re told that to succeed, to land the dream job, launch the viral video, or write the bestselling book, we must fit a certain mold.

There's a whole economy of advice built on teaching you how to be the next big thing as long as you don't change anything. We’re told to follow the playbook of past winners, mimic their style, use their formulas, and blend in to win society’s “lottery” for fame, jobs, or recognition.

Mimicry’s Illusion of Control

Experts provide precise instructions: the ideal length for your content, the right keywords for the AI screener, the perfect formula that mimics past winners. We diligently buy these , believing that by copying what came before, we are strategically placing our bets.

Whether it’s crafting the perfect viral video, applying to elite colleges, or tailoring resumes for AI screenings, the advice is clear: copy what worked before. 

But with countless others doing the same, your odds of standing out are slim. The core issue is that we’re trying to win a lottery by using the same numbers as everyone else, hoping for a different result.

The Astrology Case: Demoralisation through Misplaced Effort

The frustrating reality is that this path often leads to nowhere. Meanwhile, clinging to untested beliefs can lead us astray.

Spencer Greenberg’s study showed 152 astrologers couldn’t match people to their charts better than random guessing. They were confident they could match a person to their correct astrological chart out of five options. Despite their experience and self-belief, their collective performance was indistinguishable from random guessing. They couldn’t even agree with each other on the right answers.

This is a powerful metaphor for our own efforts. We pour our energy into following "best practices" that are, in effect, no better than guesswork. We are applying force without real impact. It’s like trying to use a crowbar on a solid wall.

This misuse of our efforts isn't just ineffective; it’s demoralising. When we wield our leverage poorly, we not only waste our potential but risk burnout and the feeling of being exploited by a system that promises rewards but delivers none.

Breakthroughs Break Molds

All truly impactful breakthroughs are surprises. They don’t follow formulas. No one asked for "Memento," or expected a biography about a forgotten bureaucrat to become "The Power Broker." Seth Godin points out that true successes, like To Kill a Mockingbird or Memento, broke molds, not followed them.

Useful bestsellers, transformative ideas, viral hits look nothing like the thing that came before. By the time the world has a name for a pattern, it's already over. Yet, we still cling to the illusion that following the rules increases our odds.

The Conformist Trap

This is cultural astrology: a belief that if we read the signs right, follow the alignments, and mimic the successful, we’ll get there. But just like astrology failed to beat random guessing in a rigorously designed study, so too does imitation fail to reliably produce innovation.

This conformist mindset is a trap. It’s like buying a lottery ticket in a crowded draw. You’re more likely to fade into the noise than shine. And while tools can amplify our impact, as Shane Parrish notes, misusing leverage risks unintended harm, like job losses or societal unrest.

Build Your Own Engine and Commit

So, what if the best strategy is to stop buying lottery tickets altogether? What if, instead of trying to guess the secret code, you created your own?

The breakthrough comes when you stop seeking external validation from flawed systems and start building your own engine for success. All the truly memorable bestsellers, game-changing films, and iconic artists were surprises. They didn't fit the pre-existing mold; they broke it. The key isn't to conform, but to create something useful and remarkable.

And once you decide on this path, your path, you must commit to it entirely. Even when parts of you doubt, or the allure of the "easy formula" tempts you back, the collective mission must supersede individual desires.

To be effective, you cannot undermine your own chosen direction. You must get behind your own decision and move forward with conviction.

Leverage as Strategic Multiplier

So what works instead? Leverage. Not luck. Not mimicry. Leverage is the force multiplier that makes a single decision echo, that turns one honest book or a bold product into cultural gravity. It’s not about fitting in, it’s about doing work that matters to people who care.

This doesn't mean being reckless; real leverage demands wisdom, because its power cuts both ways. But if you're chasing something meaningful, why would you settle for low odds and imitation when you could build your own odds through thoughtful action?

Instead of copying, innovate for those who value your unique contribution. Use leverage wisely to amplify high-impact habits, not just follow trends. Ground your decisions in evidence, not wishful thinking, and rally behind collective goals, as Ray Dalio advises, to turn ideas into reality.

The point is to create your own odds by mastering the principle of leverage. Leverage is the strategic application of force that allows the small to move the large. Instead of scattering your energy by following the crowd, identify the critical few habits, skills, and tools that will amplify your unique contribution.

In today’s world, this might mean learning to leverage technology like AI to multiply your impact far beyond what your direct labour could ever achieve. Stop looking for answers in the stars or in the shadows of past winners.

The real power lies in doing remarkable work for a specific audience that cares. Understand the systems you want to influence, apply your effort wisely, and consider the long-term effects of your actions.

Leverage is a tool, not a toy. When you use it with skill and judgment to create genuine value, you no longer need to hope you'll win the lottery, you'll be building something that lasts.

The Practical Strategy of Originality

Here’s the strategy: Stop buying cultural lottery tickets. Use your energy not on appeasing the system, but on deeply understanding the people you want to serve. Focus on the work, not the spotlight. Respect the second-order consequences. Build habits and systems that multiply your impact.

And if you find yourself in a group with a chosen direction, commit—because aligned effort beats individual dissonance every time.

The surprise hits, the movements that last, the people who shift paradigms don’t win because they guessed right. They win because they leveraged wisely, moved with integrity, and stopped worshiping randomness.

Success isn’t about fitting in, it’s about standing out through remarkable, evidence-based work.

Focus on what sets you apart, use tools like AI responsibly to multiply your impact, and unite with others to make decisions stick. By rejecting the crowded lottery and embracing originality, you’ll create a legacy that’s distinctly yours.

The Essential Concepts

The Deception of the Cultural Lottery: Many pursue success by attempting to conform to established formulas or mimic past winners, believing this will lead to a "win" in cultural lotteries like viral fame or elite acceptance, but this strategy often leads to being indistinguishable from the crowd.

Mimicry as Misplaced Effort: Following "best practices" and copying what worked before, while seemingly strategic, is often no more effective than random guessing, wasting energy and leading to demoralization when it fails to yield desired results.

Breakthroughs Defy Formulas: Truly impactful successes are inherently surprising and do not conform to existing molds; by the time a pattern is named and codified, the opportunity for innovation has already passed.

The Conformist Trap: Believing that adhering to established rules or imitating others increases one's chances of success is a conformist trap that diminishes originality and makes it harder to stand out from the noise.

Building Your Own Engine: The most effective strategy for success is to stop seeking external validation from flawed systems and instead focus on creating unique, useful, and remarkable work that addresses the needs of a specific audience.

Leverage as a Strategic Multiplier: Instead of relying on luck or mimicry, leverage is the force multiplier that allows focused effort to generate significant impact, amplifying unique contributions and creating genuine value.

The Practical Strategy of Originality: Sustainable success comes from understanding the audience, focusing on the work itself, considering long-term consequences, building systems that multiply impact, and committing fully to one's chosen direction.

Rejecting Randomness for Lasting Impact: Paradigm-shifting successes are achieved not by guessing correctly or conforming, but by wise leverage, integrity, and a rejection of the belief that success is a matter of pure chance.

I am a Knowledge Worker...

What does it mean for me?

This post challenges the conventional wisdom of corporate career advancement, urging you to move beyond simply conforming to internal "best practices" or mimicking "successful" colleagues.

You might be caught in the deception of the cultural lottery, believing that if you just follow the prescribed path (e.g., specific presentation styles, common project types), you'll win promotions or recognition.

However, this mimicry is misplaced effort, often leading to demotivating results indistinguishable from random chance, because breakthroughs defy formulas.

Falling into the conformist trap means you blend into the noise rather than stand out. The solution is to focus on building your own engine for career growth, leveraging your unique contributions.

By applying leverage as a strategic multiplier and adopting the practical strategy of originality, you can reject randomness for lasting impact, ensuring your efforts genuinely propel your career forward rather than just making you a "good fit."

How do I action this?

• Initiate a "Unique Contribution Audit" for Your Role: Take 30 minutes to list 2-3 aspects of your current role or project contributions that genuinely set you apart from peers (e.g., a specific skill, an unconventional problem-solving approach, a unique perspective). Identify one upcoming task where you can deliberately amplify this unique contribution, actively building your own engine rather than engaging in mimicry as misplaced effort.
  
• Propose a "Breakthrough Thinking" Experiment: For an upcoming team challenge or a process improvement, identify one area where "best practices" seem to lead to stagnant results. Propose a small, controlled "experiment" with a genuinely unconventional or novel approach. Frame it as testing a hypothesis for a potential breakthrough, demonstrating that breakthroughs defy formulas.
  
• Identify a "Leverage Point" for Impact: Think about a recurring task or problem in your workflow. Identify one small technology tool, new skill, or process adjustment that could disproportionately multiply your impact on that task, making your effort go further. Implement this change, applying leverage as a strategic multiplier to achieve greater results without simply working harder.
  
• Commit to a "No-Conformity Zone" for a Specific Deliverable: Choose one upcoming presentation, report, or internal communication. Intentionally deviate from the standard corporate template or conventional wisdom in one small but noticeable way (e.g., a unique visual, a bold opening statement, a non-standard conclusion that challenges assumptions). This practices the practical strategy of originality and helps you avoid the conformist trap.
  

I am a Freelancer, Solopreneur, Entrepreneur, Independent Worker...

What does it mean for me?

This post is highly relevant for building a sustainable independent business that stands out. You're likely facing the deception of the cultural lottery, feeling pressured to copy what's "viral" or "successful" online, from marketing tactics to product features.

However, engaging in this mimicry is misplaced effort that rarely yields unique results, as breakthroughs defy formulas. Falling into the conformist trap means your business fades into the noise.

The true path is to focus on building your own engine by creating genuinely unique and valuable offerings for your specific audience.

By understanding and applying leverage as a strategic multiplier, and committing to the practical strategy of originality, you can reject randomness for lasting impact, establishing a distinct and lasting presence.

How do I action this?

• Conduct a "Unique Value Proposition Audit": Dedicate 30 minutes to articulate what makes your service/product truly unique, going beyond generic benefits. Identify 1-2 elements that don't conform to industry "best practices" but genuinely solve a specific client pain point. Integrate this unique selling proposition more prominently into your next marketing message, actively building your own engine.
  
• Pilot a "Non-Conformist" Content Series: Instead of mimicking popular content formats, develop a short series (e.g., 3 posts, 1 short video series) that expresses an unconventional opinion or tackles a niche problem in a way no one else is. Share it with a small, targeted audience to gauge genuine interest, demonstrating that breakthroughs defy formulas and avoiding the conformist trap.
  
• Identify and Automate a "Leverage-Point" Business Process: Pinpoint one repetitive, low-value task in your business (e.g., scheduling, basic client onboarding, initial lead qualification). Research and implement a tool or system (even a simple one like an automated email sequence) that significantly reduces your manual effort, applying leverage as a strategic multiplier to amplify your impact.
  
• Create a "Strategic Originality" Client Onboarding Document: Develop a bespoke "Welcome Packet" or onboarding document for new clients that clearly articulates your unique approach, your specific values, and why you do things differently than competitors. This reinforces the practical strategy of originality and begins building client trust based on your distinct methods, rejecting the deception of the cultural lottery.